[This article belongs to Volume - 58, Issue - 01, 2026]
Gongcheng Kexue Yu Jishu/Advanced Engineering Science
Journal ID : AES-05-04-2026-110

Title : SPATIOTEMPORAL DYNAMICS OF LAND USE AND LAND COVER (LULC) IN THE SHIMLA DISTRICT: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS (2017 - 2024) AND PATHWAYS FOR SUSTAINABLE MOUNTAIN URBANISM
Akash Bhardwaj, Ashok Kumar Gupta

Abstract :

The Anthropocene epoch is characterized by profound anthropogenic alterations to the Earth's surface, particularly in ecologically fragile mountain environments. This study investigates the spatiotemporal dynamics of Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) changes in the Shimla district of Himachal Pradesh, India, over a seven-year period (2017–2021–2024) and projects future land-use scenarios for 2030 and 2035. Utilizing high-resolution (10x10 m) multi-temporal satellite imagery and Geographic Information System (GIS) methodologies, supervised classification was performed to categorize the landscape into nine distinct classes. The empirical results reveal a massive and rapid expansion of the built-up area, which grew by 65.30% (an increase of 183.67 square km) at the direct expense of critical ecological buffers. Simultaneously, the region witnessed a 4.23% decline in foundational tree cover (-100.33 square km), a 24.83% depletion of surface water bodies and a highly erratic 32.92% loss in agricultural croplands by 2024. Standardizing these transitions using the Puyravaud Annual Rate of Change algorithm exposes an unsustainable compound annual urban growth rate of +7.18%. Predictive modelling utilizing a simulated Cellular Automata-Markov (CA-Markov) approach forecasts that without immediate intervention, the built environment will breach 750 square km by 2035, further eradicating forest and agricultural reserves. This development-environment imbalance is directly correlated with exacerbated disaster vulnerabilities, including the devastating 2023 and 2025 rainfall-induced landslides and seasonal urban water stress. The paper provides a critical evaluation of contemporary urban policy and advocates for sustainable spatial planning to secure the future of Himalayan urbanism.